Confirmation Bias
You think you’re rational. You think you make decisions based on facts. You think you’ve got a sharp, objective mind that sees the world for what it is.
That’s adorable.
In reality, your brain is a lying little bastard that cherry-picks whatever information makes you feel like a genius and ignores everything that proves you’re full of shit.
This isn’t some personal failing—it’s just how your brain works. And if you don’t actively fight it, confirmation bias will:
- Make you overconfident in bad ideas
- Blind you to obvious red flags
- Turn your business strategy into an expensive fantasy
And the worst part? The smarter and more experienced you are, the worse this gets. Because now you have “data” and “expertise” backing up your delusions.
Your brain literally treats contradictory facts like a tiger attack. fMRI studies show that when you hear something that challenges your beliefs, your amygdala (the primal “fight-or-flight” center) lights up like a Christmas tree. Translation: Your survival instincts are weaponized against rational thinking.
And don’t think you’re immune because you’re smart. Some studies found that highly educated folks are more likely to weaponize their intelligence to defend their biases—picking apart studies they hate while swallowing flimsy evidence that confirms their views.
Let’s rip this apart.
Confirmation Bias: The Silent Business Killer
Confirmation bias is your brain’s built-in bullshit filter that only lets in information that supports what you already believe—while tossing out anything that might make you uncomfortable.
It’s why:
Founders ignore clear signs their business model is broken but will shred their competitors for making the same mistake.
Investors double down on bad bets because they "just know" it's going to work, even when the market says otherwise.
Execs dismiss obvious market shifts because they’re too busy jerking themselves off over past successes.
In short? It’s why smart people make really fucking dumb decisions.
And don’t think for a second that you’re immune.
Real-World Carnage: How Confirmation Bias Destroys Giants
BlackBerry Thought People Would Never Ditch Keyboards
They convinced themselves touchscreens were a fad. They ignored every market signal. They got annihilated.
Quibi Burned $1.75B Because of One Guy’s Ego
Jeffrey Katzenberg was certain people wanted premium, short-form video on their phones. Turns out? They didn’t. He ignored every single sign that he was wrong. Result? $1.75B down the drain in six months.
Yahoo Let Google and Facebook Eat Their Lunch
Passed on buying Google for $1M. Passed on buying Facebook for $1B. Convinced themselves they were already winning. Fast forward: Yahoo is a fucking punchline.
Every single one of these companies had money, talent, and massive market advantages.
Didn’t matter. They let their own bias kill them.
How to Beat Confirmation Bias Before It Wrecks Your Business
You can’t fully eliminate it—but you can choke it out before it fucks you up. Here’s how:
1. Actively Try to Prove Yourself Wrong
If you’re only looking for reasons your plan is bulletproof, you’re already fucked. Instead, force yourself to answer:
- What assumptions have to be true for this to work?
- What’s the best counterargument against my idea?
- What evidence would convince me I’m dead wrong?
If you can’t answer those, you’re not thinking—you’re just rationalizing.
2. Run Pre-Mortems, Not Just Post-Mortems
Don’t just ask why things failed after they crash. Predict the failure before it happens.
Ask yourself:
👉 “If this plan blows up in six months, what will have caused it?”
If you can’t list at least three possible failure points, you’re already blind to your own bullshit.
3. Surround Yourself with People Who Will Call You Out
If everyone around you agrees with you, you’ve already lost.
- Hire (or partner with) people who challenge your thinking.
- Reward dissent, don’t punish it.
- Listen to the smartest person who disagrees with you—not just the loudest ass-kisser in the room.
Your ego wants validation.
Your business needs truth.
Pick one.
4. Use Data to Test, Not Just to Confirm
If you're only looking at data that backs up what you already believe, you’re not analyzing shit—you’re just stroking your own ego.
Instead:
- Look for data that contradicts your assumption—not just what supports it.
- A/B test like a psychopath—never assume, always verify.
- Ignore “feel-good” metrics—if it doesn’t drive action, it’s useless.
Reality doesn’t care about your feelings. And neither should your strategy.
Final Thought: If You’re Not Challenging Yourself, You’re Just Guessing
Look—confirmation bias isn’t just some abstract psychology concept. It’s a full-scale operational risk.
You can be the smartest, most visionary founder in the room, but if you’re letting your own bullshit dictate your decisions, you’re still going to lose.
So here’s your challenge:
- Pick one belief you’re absolutely certain about in your business.
- Now go prove yourself wrong.
If you can’t? You’re not thinking.
You’re just hoping.
And hope is a shitty fucking strategy.
Confirmation bias isn’t a “bias”—it’s extinction-level selection pressure. Of the original Fortune 500 companies in 1955, 88% are dead or irrelevant. The survivors? They institutionalized paranoia about their own bullshit
Your move.
